Results of a scientific study commissioned by the South Carolina Emergency Management Division indicate that an earthquake today of similar intensity (7.3) and location to the one in 1886 could have the following results:

• An estimated 45,000 casualties, of which approximately 9,000 (about 20 percent) would be major injuries requiring hospitalization; fatalities would number about 900.  A daytime event would cause the highest number of casualties.

• Nearly 70,000 households, or about 200,000 people, would be displaced, with an estimated 60,000 people requiring short-term shelter.

• Total economic losses from damage to buildings, direct business interruption losses, and damage to transportation and utility systems would exceed $20 billion.  Direct economic losses due to building damages (without the business interruption losses) are estimated to exceed $14 billion. Transportation and utility systems' direct economic losses would exceed $1 billion.

• About $10.9 billion in economic losses would occur in the tri-county area of Charleston, Berkeley, and Dorchester.  The building damages alone would cause more than $4.2 billion in losses due to direct business interruption in the state.  Loss estimates include rental income, business income, wages, and relocation expenses.

• More than 250 fires would burn, primarily in the tri-county area.  The lack of operational firefighting equipment and water due to the earthquake  would be a major concern.
  

• About 80 percent of urban households in the affected tri-county area would be deprived of water.  It would take weeks, if not months, to restore the water systems to normal operation.

• Hospitals would likely suffer significant building damage that could result in up to 30 hospitals out of the 108 (about 30 percent) being nonfunctional.  More than 220 schools and more than 160 fire stations would have significant damage.  In addition, extensive damage is expected to the large inventory of re-locatable school buildings.

• Close to 800 bridges would be damaged beyond use, thus hampering recovery efforts.

• About 63 electric power facilities (51 substations out of 380, and 12 power plants out of 53) would suffer at least moderate damage; about 300,000 households would be without power.

• More than 36 million tons of debris would be generated.